01Model
- Dozens of distribution functions (Normal, PERT, Triangular, and more)
- Correlation between variables
- Input and output definition
Monte Carlo simulation for better decisions
AC Risk turns deterministic models into risk analyses that reveal how uncertainty affects outcomes, producing more realistic scenarios and identifying the factors that matter most for sound, executive-level decisions.
02Simulate
- Thousands of scenarios
- Dynamic execution in Excel
- Fast simulation engine
03Interpret and Decide
- Histograms and cumulative curves
- Scatter plots
- Confidence levels
- Sensitivity analysis
Turn uncertainty into your best decision.
Example
What is Monte Carlo simulation?
Monte Carlo simulation is a technique for analyzing how uncertainty affects a model. Instead of assigning a single value to each assumption, it uses probability distributions to generate thousands of possible scenarios and show how outcomes may vary.
In the visualization below, uncertain variables are modeled with distribution functions and simulated over thousands of iterations. This reveals not only a single result, but the full range of possible outcomes and their likelihood.
Indicators such as percentiles, or confidence levels, help interpret this distribution. P50, for example, can serve as a probabilistic reference for project estimates or expected NPV in financial models.
This simplified example shows how AC Risk lets you build this type of analysis directly in Excel.
Monte Carlo Simulation
Benefits
AC Risk brings together the capabilities that matter most when choosing your risk analysis tool
Global-standard capabilities
The risk analysis capabilities that matter, at a technical level aligned with the market's most established platforms.
Lower investment
A lower cost of entry without sacrificing the robustness required for consistent analyses in day-to-day work.
Faster performance
Optimized mode provides smoother, faster processing for simulations and scenario analyses.
Available in English and Portuguese
An English interface and documentation, backed by direct technical support for a simpler and more effective adoption process.
For professionals who need to turn uncertainty into well-founded decisions.
AC Risk gives technical, commercial, and decision-making teams a clearer, more structured view of uncertainty across a wide range of industries.
It serves both professionals who build detailed models and managers who need an objective view of risk, outcome ranges, contingency, and sensitivity.
Complex analyses become easier to communicate and defend, supporting clearer decisions in different business contexts.
Industries served
Engineering and Construction
AC Risk applies methods aligned with the PMBOK Guide and AACE International Recommended Practices for quantitative risk analysis in engineering and construction projects. It models uncertainty in cost, schedule, and productivity through probabilistic simulation, supporting contingency setting and technical decisions throughout the project life cycle.
Why AC Risk
Built on sound technical practice and real-world experience.
Throughout my career in engineering, infrastructure, CAPEX, and risk analysis, I saw a recurring challenge: organizations faced increasingly complex decisions, while the tools available to support them remained out of reach.
Major projects require consistent methods that analysts, managers, and executives can understand. Yet many teams still had to rely on solutions that were costly, inaccessible, or disconnected from their operational reality.
AC Risk was created in response to that reality.
The goal was to develop a technically rigorous solution for professionals who work with uncertainty every day, evaluate scenarios, and support important organizational decisions.
It also had to reflect the realities of the Brazilian market, with Portuguese support and a clear understanding of the specific needs of local projects and companies.
After years of applying these methods on real projects—often through improvised solutions—it was time to turn that experience into an accessible tool for teams facing these challenges every day.
André Cavalcanti
André Cavalcanti is a civil engineer, consultant, and risk management instructor with experience in infrastructure, energy, CAPEX, and insurance projects.
Throughout his career, he has helped companies evaluate risk scenarios, estimate losses, and make decisions in highly uncertain environments.
He holds international risk and project management certifications: Professional Risk Management Professional (PRMP) and Decision and Risk Management Professional (DRMP) from AACE International, and Project Management Professional (PMP) from the Project Management Institute (PMI).
He also contributes to the development of Brazil's cost engineering community.
Frequently asked questions
Common questions when evaluating AC Risk
Yes. The product is an Excel add-in and must be installed on the user's computer. Installation is quick, and our team is available if you need assistance.
Many professionals still improvise in Excel with random-number formulas and distribution functions. That may work in very simple cases, but it usually has major limitations and is prone to errors. AC Risk is also an affordable alternative to sophisticated market-leading software, retaining the core capabilities while reflecting the realities of the Brazilian market.
Your first download includes a fully featured 15-day trial. After that period, the trial expires and a license is required to continue using AC Risk. Contact us if you need additional evaluation time.
AC Risk includes direct technical support to help with deployment, day-to-day use, and questions as quickly as possible.
Yes. We provide training on using the software and applying it to practical risk-analysis workflows. Contact us to discuss your needs.